We Are Heading for Extinction
Population to Hit Seven Billion
This may sound alarmist or exaggerated to some. However, when you consider the facts, it is difficult to foresee any other outcome. In 1957, the world population was less than 3 billion. On Monday, October 31, 2011, the
world's population was projected to reach
7 billion.
The world population has more than doubled in my lifetime. Meanwhile, as Jeremy Rifkin highlights in his book "The Third Industrial Revolution", the milestone of "global peak oil per capita" was reached in the 1970s. This differs from the milestone of "peak oil," which, according to the International Energy Agency, occurred in 2006 when daily oil production hit seventy million barrels.
BP conducted a study on global peak oil per capita, later corroborated by other research. The study concluded that the available oil, if distributed equally among all individuals on Earth, peaked in 1979. Since then, population growth has continued while the energy resources to support this population have dwindled.
In 1994, David Pimentel and Mario Giampietro estimated the agricultural output/input energy ratio to be approximately 1.4. This means that for every 0.7 Kilogram-Calories (kcal) of fossil energy consumed, U.S. agriculture produced 1 kcal of food. This input figure included only some factors like fertilizers (excluding feedstock), irrigation, pesticides (excluding feedstock), and machinery and fuel for field operations. When additional energy inputs - such as crop drying, transportation, refrigeration, and maintenance of infrastructure - were included, the ratio dropped to 1. Alarmingly, half of all food produced globally is wasted.
Given these challenges, and our failure to curtail reliance on oil, it seems likely that humanity will eventually struggle to sustain itself. When this occurs, history suggests a grim outcome: conflict. Early signs of such stress are already evident in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
How do we prevent the inevitable? There are only two variables within our control. The first is population. If we could somehow reduce and manage world population growth, we might buy some time. However, human nature and historical trends make this prospect unlikely. The second variable is the development of alternative energy sources. Unfortunately, our track record in this regard does not inspire confidence.
We are at a pivotal moment in human history - the end of the age of oil. What we choose to do now will shape our destiny. Will we thrive or vanish, as many species have before us?
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